Infection

Zika: 1.6 million childbearing women are at risk

Research by scientists in the US and UK has estimated that up to 1.65 million childbearing women in Central and South America could become infected by the Zika virus by the end of the first wave of the epidemic. Researchers from the WorldPop Project and Flowminder Foundation at the University of Southampton and colleagues from the University of Notre Dame and University of Oxford have also found that across Latin America and the Caribbean over 90 million infections could result from the initial stages of the spread of Zika.

Map showing the projected number of Zika infections in childbearing women.
Map showing the projected number of Zika infections in childbearing women.
Source: University of Southampton

The team’s projections, detailed in the paper Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas, also show that Brazil is expected to have the largest total number of infections (by more than three-fold), due to its size and suitability for transmission.

The estimates reflect the sum of thousands of localised projections of how many people could become infected within every five x five km grid cell across Central and South America. Because the virus may not reach each corner of this region, or may do so slowly, the total figure of 1.65 million represents an upper limit estimate for the first wave of the epidemic.

Geographer at the University of Southampton and WorldPop and Flowminder Director Professor Andrew Tatem comments: “It is difficult to accurately predict how many child-bearing women may be at risk from Zika because a large proportion of cases show no symptoms. This largely invalidates methods based on case data and presents a formidable challenge for scientists trying to understand the likely impact of the disease on populations.”

In fact, an estimated 80 per cent of Zika infections don’t show symptoms and of those which do, some may be due to other viruses. Coupled with inconsistent case reporting and variable access to health care for different populations, these factors make case based data unreliable.However, this latest research has built a picture of the projected spread of the disease by examining its likely impact at very local levels –at a scale of five kilometres squared. The researchers have brought this local data together to model infection rates across the region.

The team took into account disease patterns displayed in similar epidemics, along with other factors such as how the virus is transmitted (in this instance by mosquito), climate conditions and virus incubation periods. They also examined transmission behaviour in dengue and chikungunya viruses. Their projections for Zika are largely consistent with annual, region-wide estimates of 53 million infections by the dengue virus (2010), which has many similarities to Zika.

Coupled with existing data on population, fertility, pregnancies, births and socio-economic conditions for the region, the team has been able to model the possible scale of the projected spread of the Zika virus and provide a detailed understanding of the places likely to be most affected – helping to inform which areas will need the most support in combatting the disease and helping sufferers.

Professor Tatem adds: “These projections are an important early contribution to global efforts to understand the scale of the Zika epidemic, and provide information about its possible magnitude to help allow for better planning for surveillance and outbreak response, both internationally and locally.”

Source: University of Southampton

05.08.2016

Related articles

Photo

News • Championship with side effects

Football Euro: Study shows impact on Covid-19 infections

The European Football Championship in 2021 had an impact on the participating countries' coronavirus infections, a new study shows. However, the extent depended greatly on the initial situation.

Photo

News • Coronavirus consequences

Covid-19 continues to reduce life expectancy (in some countries more than others)

Covid-19 has led to global mortality changes unprecedented in the last 70 years, according to new research. However, the drop in life expectancy is not equally high in all countries.

Photo

News • Global study finds increase in deaths

Why is Covid-19 more deadly on weekends?

A global analysis of nearly 6 million Covid-19 deaths finds an increase in mortality at weekends compared to weekdays. Bureaucratic and reporting delays alone do not explain this, researchers report.

Related products

Subscribe to Newsletter